Rushing is not always good, especially in regards to Democracy
A European Constitution : Sooner or Later ?
18 June 2007 - Since the French and the Dutch “No” to the European Constitution, the future of the latter has been uncertain. Indeed, Member States agreed to a “period of reflection”. This period ended with the Austrian presidency and was completely forgotten by the German one. As we have already stated on the website, it seems that the general conception is for a European Constitution at any cost. However, since the first wave of ratifications, many political changes have taken place. Are they significant? Will they change the outcome of the “race for a Constitution”?
Some are insignificant in regards to the EU debate but others could play a crucial role. Firstly, the election of Sarkozy to the post of French President will change the french politics. Therefore, without a potent opposition in the French Parliament, France will vote for the mini-treaty without referendum which is a step backwards in our fight for more democracy in the European Union. The results of last Sunday elections however show that the President will have to face a certain opposition. Will he have to bend under the pressure?
What other obstacles could stand in the way of the Constitution? Actually, there are two: one substantial and one procedural.
The first has nothing to do with the fact that the citizens are not included in the process of ratification. It has some relation to democracy, depending though on one’s definition of democracy since it is related to the Polish and Czech wish to change the voting system. They consider the middle-sized countries to be underprivileged in the voting system proposed in the Constitution. Thus, if the other countries take the time to discuss this topic, it might give more time to supporters of greater democracy to impose referenda in as many countries as possible. Furthermore, these two countries originally planned to have a referendum and will probably do so, if only to show their discontent if their wishes are not taken into consideration.
This overlaps with the second obstacle which is that some countries may take the right path and organise a referendum. Maybe, the unwilling states will follow this example. Ireland does not have the choice whether to have one. Indeed, this is the only Member State who is constitutionally obliged to hold a referendum on such a topic. Socrates, the Portuguese Prime Minister, also stated that Portugal will hold a referendum on any new treaty. Denmark and Sweden are also meant to hold referenda and given their history and their customs in relation to referenda, they will probably hold one this time, especially if other countries do as well. Indeed, one must remember that the Danish Parliament does not have to consult the Danish public if more than five sixths of the parliament agrees to a decision (art. 20 of the 1953 Constitution). However the custom of holding a referendum especially on European issues is done so that the population dissociates national politics from European politics. It is also highly probable that the Netherlands will hold a referendum, mainly for political reasons. The population was strongly against the first Constitution and despite the fact that elections have occurred since, the probability of the new representatives not asking the public is very low and not have a referendum could also result in popular discontent (or even upheavals) even if the leaders have clearly stated that they do not want to hold a new referendum.
Two countries, namely Belgium and the UK, might also play a role in this. Indeed, Belgium is going through political changes and the UK will be soon as well. Last Sunday, Belgium renewed its federal parliament with the Flemish Christian Democrats scoring the highest number of seats. Now a government needs to be made, meaning that the winning party has to build a coalition to gain a majority in the parliament. The possibilities are wide and may influence Belgium politics towards the EU. Indeed, the likely candidates for the coalition fought, at the time, for the right to hold referenda to be inscribed in the Belgium Constitution. They did so in order to organise a referendum on the European Constitution. At the time, they failed. However, these parties (meaning the MR and Ecolo) now have more influence than before and one can not rule out the possibility of the Christian Democrats changing their word and switching from a no referendum position (that they defended before) to a pro-referendum one. Including the right for referendum in the Belgium Constitution is a touchy topic since it will open the door for popular voting on separation. Nonetheless, one of the main projects of the Christian Democrats being to decentralise Belgium even more so that it will become a loose federation/confederation, one can then assume that they will join the pro-referendum camp. However only time can answer this question.
The UK will soon change Prime Minister. There is a high probability that Brown will hold the position until the next elections. For the moment, the debate surrounding the holding of a referendum is blurry. What is sure is that Cameron (Brown’s main opponent) said that he would organise a referendum if he wins the elections. Brown however is quite contradictory as he wants to be closer to the citizens but without necessarily having to hold a popular vote even though he is being put under pressure to do so. One can thus argue that if many countries decide to have one, the UK, even led by Brown would follow suit.
Given that all our predictions follow through, it would mean that nine countries out of twenty-seven will hold a referendum and at least two will try to discuss the constitution all over again. One third of European countries are thus slowing the race which would, hopefully, prove to the other two thirds that rushing is not always good, and that some things need time, for example, building a new highly diverse political entity.
Sources: Le Monde, Le Soir, Open Europe
By Anaďs Camus, EUD researcher
For more information, please contact: anais@eudemocrats.org